NL West
San Diego Padres
78-68
60%
Playoff ChancesChance of Playoffs
Earliest possible clinch
If every result goes the Padres' way.
Starting…
Playoffs
Waiting…
NL West
Waiting…
1st-round bye
Waiting…
No. 1 seed
Waiting…
Answers follow the results as they come in.
How can today's Magic numbers change?
There are 9 games today that could impact the Padres' magic numbers.
The Padres' magic number for each spot after today's games.
Playoffs
Now: magic number 15.
Magic number falls to 13 with…
- Padres win and Diamondbacks loss
NL West
Now: no magic number yet.
No magic number (needs help) with…
whatever else happens today.
First-round bye
Now: no magic number yet.
No magic number (needs help) with…
whatever else happens today.
No. 1 seed
Now: no magic number yet.
No magic number (needs help) with…
whatever else happens today.
Precomputed for today: all 512 combinations, run by the site at Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 9:54 PM CDT in 86s.
Playoff odds
A Monte Carlo run of every remaining game and the postseason after it, twice over.
| Chance of | Magic # | StrengthStrength of sched.Pythagorean | Coin flipCoin flipevery game 50/50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Make the playoffs | 15 | 60% | 58% |
| Win the division | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Wild card berth | — | 60% | 58% |
| First-round bye (top 2) | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| No. 1 seed | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Postseason | |||
| Reach the Division Series | — | 23% | 29% |
| Reach the League Championship Series | — | 7% | 14% |
| Reach the World Series | — | 3% | 7% |
| Win the World Series | — | 1% | 4% |
| Final seed | |||
| #1 seed | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #2 seed | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #3 seed | — | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| #4 seed | — | 3% | 3% |
| #5 seed | — | 11% | 12% |
| #6 seed | — | 46% | 42% |
| Miss the playoffs | — | 40% | 42% |
Magic # is exact and schedule-aware — the wins (or closest-rival losses) that guarantee the spot, tiebreakers included. The same numbers sit on the Division Standings page.
Strength of schedule plays out each remaining game weighted by both clubs' scoring and the schedule they have faced; coin flip gives every game an even chance. Each run then plays the bracket its own season set up — series lengths, home games and byes included. Percentages are simulated, never a clinch.